My predictions for the 2021 MLB Free Agency. Who’s going where and for how much money?
The shortened 2020 season has officially come to an end, with the Los Angeles Dodgers being crowned champions last Tuesday after beating the Tampa Bay Rays in six games. Now it’s time for what I like to call “speculation season” (otherwise known as the off-season). It’s time to speculate on where players from the 2021 Free Agent class are going to sign and how much they will sign for. It’s the most exciting part of the off-season; everything after speculation season is just filler while we wait for the season to begin. I have compiled a list of who I think are the five most valuable free agents in 2021, so let’s talk about what makes them so valuable and which teams will be going after them this winter.
Trevor Bauer
Fangraphs contract prediction: 3 years, 87 million, 29 million AAV
First on the list is the always polarizing Trevor Bauer, formerly of the Cleveland Indians, and most recently, the Cincinnati Reds. Trevor Bauer is one of the most exciting players in the MLB, and he has done wonders in building his brand throughout the past few years of his career. Bauer’s company, Momentum, and its YouTube channel have surpassed over 110 thousand subscribers on the platform. Bauer has spent lots of time working on his image, but that has not slowed down his production on the field. In 2018, Bauer had a Cy Young worthy performance, posting a 2.21 ERA, a league-leading 2.44 FIP to go along with 221 strikeouts in 175 innings of work. Bauer then had a relatively low 2019 season with the Indians, who then traded him at the deadline to the Reds. In 2019, Bauer had a 4.48 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and a 1.249 WHIP in 213 innings of work. Bauer did keep his strikeout totals high in his poor 2019 season, with a 10.7 K/9 compared to 11.3 in 2018. Bauer put his 2019 season behind him in 2020, though, and he put forth another Cy Young worthy performance (as of writing this, Bauer was named one of the three finalists for the NL Cy Young award, along with Jacob Degrom and Yu Darvish). In 2020 Bauer led the league in ERA (1.73), WHIP (0.795), and H/9 (5.1) to go along with 100 strikeouts in 73 innings of work. Bauer is the best starting pitcher on the market this off-season, although to be fair, the market is small for starting pitchers, with Bauer, Charli Morton, and Marcus Stroman, the only elite-level pitchers in the pool. The Reds have put a qualifying offer ($18.9 million)on the table, but I would be shocked if Bauer agrees to it. Bauer had recently stated that he was only interested in one-year deals for the rest of his career, but according to his agent, Rachel Luba, they are open to any kind of offers. Bauer may be seen as a risk to some teams, despite his spectacular 2020 season, but Bauer has put up Cy Young level pitching in 2 of the past three seasons, so I don’t see any teams trying to shy away from acquiring Bauer this off-season. Now let’s look at possible destinations for Bauer.
New York Mets
The New York Mets are a perfect candidate to pick up Bauer this off-season, and that is because they just got a brand new owner, Steve Cohen. The Mets past owner, Fred Wilpon, who owned the team from 2002 up until just a couple of weeks ago, was very stingy with the money he spent on the team, and over the past few seasons when they were a playoff team that was just missing a few pieces, they neglected to sign or trade for anyone. The Mets new owner, Steve Cohen, who is set to take over in the next week or so, seems ready to spend. The Mets have a good team that includes an excellent young offensive core of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and many more. Also, they have the best pitcher in the MLB in Jacob Degrom. They have Noah Syndergaard coming back from Tommy John Surgery in 2021, and the addition of Bauer could give them one of the best rotations in the entire major leagues. Look for the Mets to not only be in the sweepstakes on Bauer but also another player, who we’ll talk about later.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are one of the most frustrating teams in the league, in my opinion, as they have the greatest baseball player alive on their team, Mike Trout (ever heard of him?), but yet they have not made the playoffs since 2014. They signed third-basemen Anthony Rendon last off-season to a seven-year, $245 million deal, to go along with Mike Trout, who is signed until 2030, and two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani who won’t enter free-agency until 2023. The Angels are poised to become a playoff team, but their problem has been for many years, starting pitching. The Angels ace last year was Dylan Bundy, who did put up a fantastic season (3.29 ERA, 72 strikeouts in 65 innings), but Dylan Bundy is not meant to be a team’s ace; he is a reliable number three or maybe a number two starter. Bauer can give the Angels 200+ solid innings of work, and although the rotation and bullpen will still need some help even with Bauer’s addition, it’s a starting point. It is all dependent on the Angels owner, Arte Moreno, who has been as frugal as they come for the 17 years he has owned the team. If Moreno is willing to pay for talent, such as Bauer, to go to the Angels, their playoff chances will become much higher.
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have reached the end of their decade long rebuild (12 years to be exact), and they are in win-now mode. The young talent they have built up in the minor leagues has become major leagues ready, such as Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, and Nick Madrigal. Add that young core together with Lucas Giolito, who has become their ace, along with Jose Abreau, a finalist for AL MVP this year; this team is ready to get to and stay in the playoffs for many years. Bauer perfectly fits this White Sox team that is filled with big personalities, big bat flips, and a lot of talent. I expect the White Sox to offer Bauer a nice contract and would not be surprised to see him as their Opening Day starter in 2021.
George Springer
Fangraphs contract prediction: 5 years, 110 million, 22 million AAV
George Springer is the best free agent on the market this off-season, although he should have been a free agent last winter. Due to the Astros keeping Springer in the minor leagues for way longer than he should have, which is not a new thing in baseball, it’s called Service Time Manipulation, which we’ll explore in a separate story. Springer is entering his age 31 season in 2021, which is not old by no means, but teams use age as leverage in contract negotiations. Springer likely would have been due for a much larger paycheck if he was a free agent last year when he was entering his age 30 season. Nonetheless, he is a free agent this year. Springer has been a focal point of the Astros powerhouse lineup of the last few years, and he has shined his whole career. He has hit at least 20 home runs in all but two of his first seven major-league seasons, with one of those seasons being the shortened 2020 season. Springer has averaged a .278/.364/.515 slash line over the last four seasons, to go along with 109 home runs in that span as well. Springer also finished 13th in MVP voting in 2017 and seventh in 2019. He is coming off a great season with the Astros, where most of his teammates faltered in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal with the team from 2017–2018. In 51 games in 2020, Springer hit 14 home runs, had a .899 OPS, and put up 1.9 WAR, leading his team in those categories. Springer is poised to be at the top of many teams’ lineups for a long time; now, let’s speculate where he might land.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are in win-now mode, just like the White Sox, and they are likely going to be a competing team for many years to come after they narrowly missed out on the World Series in 2020 after losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games in the NLCS. The Braves may lose Marcell Ozuna (who we’ll talk about in a bit)to free agency this winter, and if they do, they will likely inquire into Springer. Springer is probably done spending most of his time playing Centerfield, but that works with the Braves, as Ronald Acuna Jr has claimed that position for the years to come. Springer’s bat fills the hole that will be missing if Ozuna doesn’t re-sign with the team.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals are the team that I would expect Springer to sign with this offseason. The Nationals are coming off a 2020 season where they finished tied for last in their division with a 26–34 record. The Nationals are also coming off back to back seasons where they have lost the best player on their team to free agency, with Bryce Harper leaving in 2018 to the Phillies and Anthony Rendon leaving to the Angels last winter. The Nationals are a lineup that needs power, as they finished 21st in home runs as a team last season. In a time where the ball is leaving the park more than ever, the Nats are falling behind. Although they have one of the best pure hitters in the league in Juan Soto, they need players behind him (or in front) to protect him, as Soto led the league with 12 intentional walks last season. Adding Springer in the lineup brings the Nationals the power they are looking for, and it also helps their outfield defence, with Soto playing a very mediocre left-field. Springer looks to me like a perfect fit for the Nationals, and If the team is willing to spend, which they have been unwilling to do in recent years, Springer should be their starting right fielder next year.
J.T Realmuto
Fangraphs contract prediction: 5 years, 110 million, 22 million AAV
J.T Realmuto is a fantastic catcher, and not only that, he is the best catcher in baseball. He is an elite defensive catcher, ranking at the top of all defensive statistics over the last three seasons, and he can also hit for average, power, and run. In the previous three seasons with the Marlins and the Phillies, Realmuto has an OPS+ of 118, 57 home runs, a .336 OBP, and 326 hits. Whether you rank him first, second, or third in this free-agent class, he is one of three, and any team with a hole at the catcher position should look to pick him up this off-season. Let’s look at the teams where Realmuto may land.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have seen what Realmuto can do the past two seasons, and if they are smart, their priority will be to re-sign him this off-season. The Phillies are a good team; they signed Bryce Harper for likely the rest of his career, they have power at first base with Rhys Hoskins, and they have a good young core that includes 2020 Rookie of the year candidate Alex Bohm, along with Roman Quinn, and Scott Kingery. The Phillies have good starting pitching, but they have a horrible bullpen, ranked third-worst overall in 2020, and the worst in ERA with a 7.06 ERA. If the Phillies sign Realmuto and get help in their bullpen, they could expect to become a playoff team within the next three years.
New York Mets
The Mets are in the running for Realmuto for the same reasons they are for Bauer. The Mets are poised to make some big splashes this off-season, and going after the best catcher in baseball is about as big of a splash that they could make. The Mets are coming off a very disappointing season, as their offence was very inconsistent. The catcher position, which Tomas Nido mainly occupied, was the least valuable (0.4 WAR) for the Mets. Realmuto adds another bat in the lineup that fits well with the team’s young core, and I could see the Mets making a big push at him this off-season.
Marcell Ozuna
Fangraphs Contract prediction: 4 years, 70 million, 17.5 million AAV
Marcell Ozuna is entering his age 30 season, and he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career with the Braves. After a 2017 season where he hit 37 home runs and put up 5.7 WAR, Ozuna had a rough 2018 and 2019 seasons, missing lots of time due to a right shoulder injury. This shot down his value, and he had to sign a one year, $18 million deal with the Braves last offseason. Ozuna proved that his previous two seasons were behind him, and finished the season with a 175 OPS+, led the league in home runs (18), total bases (145), and placed third in WRC+ (179), and seventh in WAR (2.5). He is the second-best outfielder in this free-agent class, behind Springer, although he is 14 months younger than Springer. Many teams will be going after Ozuna, but let’s narrow the guesses down to who is most likely to have him on their team next year.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves should try to re sign Ozuna this off-season, especially if they miss out on the George Springer sweepstakes. Ozuna could be a better option for them over Springer, though, as they might be able to sign him to a three-year deal instead of a five-year agreement that Springer is expected to sign. Braves General Manager Alex Anthopolous has expressed interest in resigning Ozuna, and I would not be surprised to see him back in a Braves uniform next year. The only thing that does hurt Ozuna’s value is that the Designated Hitter is rumored not to be staying in the National League next year. Ozuna’s defense has faltered the past few seasons, to the point that he played 39 of his 60 games at DH this season.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox lineup is pretty much set for the next few years, and there aren’t any holes from top to bottom. The problem the White Sox has is in left field with Eloy Jimenez. Eloy Jiminez is an electrifying bat in the White Sox lineup, but his defense is even worse than Ozuna’s is in left field. If the White Sox looked to sign Ozuna, they could platoon the two of Jimenez and Ozuna at left field and DH, and whoever is better defensively takes over left field, while the other spends most of the time at DH. The White Sox are poised to be big spenders for the years to come, and attempting to sign Ozuna along with Bauer would be some great investments into their World Series hopes.
Texas Rangers
Before Ozuna eventually did sign with the Braves the last off-season, the Rangers were seen as the front runners to get him. The Rangers need help at every aspect of their team, as they finished with the second-worst record (22–38)in the entire league last year, and they also finished dead last in team offensive production. The Rangers have some bright spots on their team with Joey Gallo and Lance Lynn, but they still need many more pieces to become a winning team again. Signing Ozuna may not be their priority as they may just begin rebuilding the team, but if they are looking to win, Ozuna is an excellent addition to their team.
DJ Lemahieu
Fangraphs Contract prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 14 million AAV
DJ Lemahieu has been a fantastic leadoff for the Yankees ever since he signed a two year, $24 million contract with them heading into the 2019 season. Lemahieu won the batting title in 2020, becoming the first player to ever win the batting title in both the American League and National League (He won it with the Colorado Rockies in 2016). He is also one of the three finalists for the AL MVP award and Jose Abreau of the White Sox and Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Indians. Lemahieu will likely continue to be an elite hitter for many years to come, as he is just entering his age 32 season. Lemahieu’s defensive abilities have hindered this past season, but he does have the versatility to play anywhere in the infield besides catcher. The Yankees sent Lemahieu a qualifying offer ($18.9 million), and I expect him to either accept it or sign with them for around the same amount. The Yankees seem heavily invested in re-signing Lemahieu this offseason, and I would be shocked to see him playing anywhere else than in New York with the Yankees.
Marcus Semien
Fangraphs Contract prediction: 4 years, 64 million, 16 million AAV
Marcus Semien is likely the unluckiest free agent in the 2021 class, and it comes down to the position he plays, shortstop. Semien had his breakout year in 2020, finishing third in AL MVP voting behind only Mike Trout and Alex Bregman. Semien had a rough start to his 2020 season and ended up finishing with a below-average 91 WRC+, a significant drop off from his 137 WRC+ in 2019. Semien’s problem is that the best shortstops in the league, including Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, and Corey Seager, are hitting free agency next winter. Teams are likely going to hold off on acquiring Semien this offseason when those guys will be available next year. Semien can quickly bounce back from his below average 2019 season, though. I expect Semien to resign with the Oakland Athletics for around 16–18 million dollars a year, which is an excellent bargain for the team if he returns to his 2019 self.
The 2021 season is already only a few short months away, and the players on this list will be wearing new uniforms, or maybe the same ones they wore last year. Whoever ends up landing these players will be very lucky, and they will immediately increase their odds at a playoff berth and maybe even a World Series championship.
