My predictions for the upcoming MLB season. Including World Series picks, MVP, Cy Young winners, and much more.
The 2020 MLB season is (finally) about to get underway. The New York Yankees and Washington Nationals, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, open up the season on July 23rd while every other team in the league begins their season on the 24th. The season finally starting means that it’s time to try and predict the future, and figure out who has the best chance to win the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year awards along with who I think is going to win the World Series. This season is way harder to predict as it is only 60 games opposed to the regular 162 game schedule, meaning that anything could happen. I want to take a look at who I think is going to shine bright in this extremely short season, and who is going to take home the coveted Commissioner’s trophy.
Rookie of the Year
For the American League Rookie of the Year award, my pick goes to Luis Robert (pictured above). The White Sox signed Robert to a six-year, 50 million dollar contract in February, which meant Robert would likely be making his MLB debut this season. Robert is the number three prospect in baseball right now — he is coming off an incredible season in the minors last year. In 122 games last season, Robert had a slash line of .328/.376/.624 for an OPS of 1.001 along with 32 home runs and 11 triples. Robert has been compared to Mike Trout and Derek Jeter — the comparisons are warranted. Robert has demonstrated that he is a five-tool player and it looks like the White Sox are going to have him be their starting center fielder on Opening Day. If Robert plays in the majors this season he is a surefire pick for AL Rookie of the Year.
My pick for the National League Rookie of the Year goes to a player who is just one position higher on the prospect rankings than Luis Robert: Gavin Lux (pictured above). Lux became a player to watch almost immediately after the Dodgers drafted him 20th overall in the 2016 draft, and ever since, he has shown his promise in the minor leagues, even earning himself a September call-up last year. In 2019 between Double-A and Triple-A, Lux hit for a slash line of .347/.421/.607 for an OPS of 1.028. Lux has also gotten more power in his swing since his minor league debut, hitting more home runs every year he’s played. He hit no home runs in his debut 2016 season (albeit he only played in 56 games), he then hit seven in 2017, 15 in 2018, and 26 in 2019. Lux was already a player to watch before he started putting up good power numbers and now It seems that he will be the Dodgers’ second baseman of the future. If the Dodgers plan on having Lux on their big league team this year then I think he has the best chance to take home the NL Rookie of the Year trophy.
Cy Young
This is one of the easiest choices I had to make for this whole story — that Gerrit Cole is going to win the 2020 AL Cy Young award. Cole is coming off an incredible 2019 season, after which he finished runner up in the Cy Young voting to his teammate at the time, Justin Verlander. Cole pitched to a 2.50 ERA and a 185 ERA+ and struck out a career-high of 326, all of which were the best in the majors. Why he finished second in Cy Young voting is beyond me, but I digress. Cole is not only coming off a great 2019 season, but he also signed the biggest pitching contract of all time, with the New York Yankees. Cole pitched for the Astros last year which was a pitchers dream — the Astros had the best offence in the majors in 2019. Now Cole gets to pitch for his hometown team, who were favourites to win the World Series even before his arrival. I think Cole is going to continue his dominance from 2019, and finally take home his first Cy Young award.
The National League was a little more difficult to choose than the American League when it comes to the Cy Young award. I am going to talk about the two players who I think have the best chance of winning the award. Walker Buehler of the Los Angeles Dodgers came into his own in 2019, sporting career highs in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched, becoming one of the league’s best pitchers in the process. Buehler became the ace of the Dodgers, a rotation that included Clayton Kershaw (who is past his prime but still making hitters look silly in the box), Kenta Maeda, and Hyun Jin Ryu. The Dodgers rotation did suffer in the off-season though, as they lost Ryu to the Blue Jays in free agency and Kenta Maeda in the trade that brought Mookie Betts to LA. Now Buehler will be asked to pitch the most important games, and I think he’s ready for it.
I’m not in Vegas but if I was creating the odds for the 2020 NL Cy Young then Buehler would have the second-best ones, only after Jacob Degrom (pictured above). Degrom is much like Mike Trout (who we’ll talk about in a bit) in the way that every year when the MVP front-runners are chosen, Trout is undoubtedly mentioned. Degrom has reached that calibre for the NL Cy Young award. He has won it the past two seasons, joining the likes of Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemons, and Clayton Kershaw, and other greats who have won back to back Cy Young awards. Degrom is the best pitcher in baseball — there’s no argument against that. In his last two seasons, he had a 2.05 ERA, 189 ERA+, 524 strikeouts, .0941 WHIP, and he has pitched 421 innings. Degrom has been near unhittable the past two seasons, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be stopping his dominance going into the shortened 2020 season. If I was a betting man I’d be putting my money on Degrom winning his third straight Cy Young trophy this season.
Most Valuable Player
Like I said earlier when you mention the MVP award you have to mention Mike Trout. Trout is going into this season at 28 years old and he has been the best player in baseball since he entered the league at just 19. Trout still has at least three years of his prime left, and he is going to continue to dominate pitchers in the league for years to come. Trout has already won the MVP award three times in his career and in his eight full seasons he has never finished worse than fourth in MVP voting. In his MVP season last year, Trout led the American League in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and he hit 45 home runs, a number that was second only to Jorge Soler of the Royals. Trout is the most exciting baseball player to watch in the world — day in and day out he dominates on the field, and I expect him to continue to do that in the shortened 2020 season.
Speaking of continued dominance, my pick for National League MVP is Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers. Yelich has one MVP award under his belt already after his eye-opening 2018 season. It was Yelich’s fifth full season, but it was his breakout year. Yelich led the national league in batting average, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and he notched 36 home runs in 2018. Yelich put up very similar numbers in his 2019 season, but they were even better. He raised his batting average by three points, he led the league in OBP, OPS, OPS+, and he hit eight more home runs, in 17 fewer games. Yelich is electrifying with his bat and has become one of the best pure hitters in the past two seasons. Yelich is an average defender at best, but if his glove can get just a bit better and he continues to put up hitting numbers like he has the past two years, then Yelich is the easy pick for MVP in 2020 (and the next few years as well).
Playoffs and World Series
This part is going to be the hardest to predict. The 60 game season, as Peter Brand said in Moneyball, “opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities”. The season is scheduled to start on July 23rd and end on September 27th which opens up the possibility for certain teams to have one good month (and a half) and potentially make the playoffs. Here are my predictions on the standings of each division.
Asterisk is for wild card winners,
AL East: NYY, TBR*, BOS, TOR, BAL
AL Central: MIN, CWS, CLE, KCR, DET
AL West: HOU, OAK*, LAA, TEX, SEA
NL East: ATL, NYM*, WAS, PHI, MIA
NL Central: CIN, STL*, CHC, MIL, PIT
NL West: LAD, ARI, COL, SDP, SFG
I think the playoffs go a little something like this.
Wild Card game:
Rays beat the Athletics
Cardinals beat the Mets
Division series:
Yankees beat the Rays 3–1
Twins beat the Astros 3–2
Dodgers beat the Cardinals 3–0
Reds beat the Braves 3–2
Championship series:
Yankees beat the Twins 4–2
Dodgers beat the Reds 4–1
World Series:
Dodgers beat the Yankees 4–3
It may seem like an easy prediction having the Yankees against the Dodgers in the World Series, but it’s the scenario that makes the most sense. The two best teams are the Yankees and Dodgers — they are both in a league of their own, and I think they will both have a fairly easy path to the World Series. The NL Central was a tough division to predict as I think that there are at least three and maybe four teams who could win that division. Between the Reds, Cubs, Cardinals they all have a great chance at grabbing the division, and the Brewers, although they lost a lot of their best players, could still make a run for it. The Reds look really good though, with their acquisitions of Trevor Bauer, Nick Castellanos, and Mike Moustakas. The Reds have all the pieces of a good playoff team, it’s just whether they get put together in an effective way.
In the end, I am just glad that we are getting a baseball season this year. The fact that the season is 60 games should add all sorts of excitement, as now there really isn’t the time to have “slumps”. Teams are going to have to show up every day ready to win, which I know they do already. Now the games count 2.7 times more than they would in a full 162 game season. This season is going to be fun to watch and I’m excited to look back on this story come November and see if I got any of these predictions right.
Follow me on Social Media!
@ alexgravelle22 on Instagram
@ GravelleAlex on Twitter
